## On Paradigms of Problem Solving (Revised Version for Class Assignment of Stanford Continuing Study)

In  the 19th century, engineering was almost a synonym of mechanical engineering. A typical way to solve problems at that time was 1. analyzing the mechanical structure, 2. building the machine with gears and wrench and 3. using steam engine to drive the machine.

Steam engine was a revolutionary innovation as it introduced a “paradigm” for problem solving. If you have a mechanic description of your problem, steam engine can take care of the rest. There were tons of derivative innovations following this “paradigm”, such as plane, steamship, submarine, automobile and so on. (some of them used internal combustion engine, an improvement of steam engine). Theoretically, steam engine and its derivatives can solve any mechanical problem. What people need to do is to describe the problem in a “mechanical language.”

In contrast, nowadays people have been accustomed to resort to computers when they have problems. Computer is another revolutionary innovation because it provides a similar paradigm. A computer is basically a calculator that can do additions very fast. Since all arithmetic operations can reduce to additions, computer provides us the ability to solve any arithmetic problems that can be described by computer languages.  The paradigm for computer is 1. formulating an arithmetic model, 2. proposing an algorithm and 3. running the algorithm with computers.

Steam engines and computers share some common points. Both of them provide a good solution for a fundamental problem: steam engines deal with the problem of “generating rotary movement with a strong force” and computers deal with the problem of “doing additions in a fast way”.

We solve problems by paradigms, namely we divide a problem into a large sequence of “fundamental problems” and solve them with a “problem solver”. The figure below shows the paradigm for steam engines and computers.

Why we need paradigm?

Paradigms can save us time. The real world is too complex and we cannot do everything well. A reasonable way is to solve a small set of problems perfectly and to transform the problem we want to solve into these problems.

Why we need to be cautious about paradigms?

Every innovator needs to be cautious about paradigms. Every paradigm has its own limitation. A paradigm can be very good for some problems and very bad for some others.

It is awesome to use steam engines (or its derivatives) to solve transportation problems. However, it will be very inefficient to use it to solve communication problems.

In the pre-information age when most communications were done by mails, a lot of people tried to improve communication efficiency by inventing faster mail vans.  They innovated in their familiar paradigm, but none of them is remembered by us. The problem of communication efficiency was not solved by faster mail vans but computers and the Internet.

Similarly, computers also have drawbacks. Whenever we face a problem nowadays, we subconsciously resort to computers  (by writing apps or algorithms). However, computers are powerful, but definitely are not omnipotent.

For example, short battery life is the bottleneck of electric cars. Tesla uses normal chemical batteries provided by Matsushita and its secret sauce is its power management algorithms. Although Tesla has done a good job, its solution still follows the paradigm for computers. The battery life problem is an energy problem, which cannot be modeled as arithmetic operations. The fundamental problem here is “to store a unit of energy”, which hasn’t been solved well yet.

PS:

Another hilarious example is this mad mother who created a app to lock his son’s phone when he doesn’t respond. The problem here—-“improving the mother-son relationship”– is definitely not an problem that computers are good at.

# 博尔赫斯的图书馆

KK不仅谈到了人与人之间的连接。他还谈到了人与信息之间的连接。人与信息的连接有两个方面。一是如何让人方便的找到信息；二是如何让信息自组织成为和人一样的智能。事实上这两个方面是息息相关的。

# 结语

KK毕竟不是神，《失控》中也有许多观点被证明是不对的，比如KK相信网络的计费会像水电一样按比特收费，而加密将会使得这种计费方式可行。事实的网络上的主要收费方式是固定的接入费用加上广告或者增值收费。还有许多观点还有待时间检验，比如KK关于去中心化的电子货币成为主流的观点。智者千虑，或有一疏，尽管有这些争议性的部分，《失控》仍然堪称经典。事实上，《失控》影响了整整一代美国人，失控里的许多预言，都是被它的读者所实现的，这正应了一句流行语：最好的预言就是去实现预言。

## Summary of “The Most Powerful Idea in the World: A Story of Steam, Industry, and Invention”

Recently I finished reading the book The Most Powerful Idea in the World: A Story of Steam, Industry, and Invention. The author’s key statement is that industrial revolution was first and foremost, a revolution in invention, and the industrial revolution took place in England because “its unique combination of law and circumstances.” Here are some interesting sentences from the book.

1. Before the eighteenth century, inventions were either created by those wealthy enough to do so as a leisure activity (or to patronize artisans to do so on their behalf), or they were kept secret for as long as possible. In England, a unique combination of law and circumstance gave artisans the incentive to invent, and in return obliged them to share the knowledge of their inventions.
2. Papin was an industrial scientist before there was an industry to employ him, which made him, in consequence, completely dependent on patronage.
3. The most powerful pumps in use in seventeenth-century England were operated by waterwheels, but nothing obliged rivers and streams to be convenient to mines; finding an alternative machine that could overcome water’s tendency to seek the lowest level of any excavation meant that vacuum was no longer a purely philosophical concept.
4. IN ITS ORIGINAL MEANING, the word “patent” had nothing to do with the rights of an inventor and everything to do with the monarch’s prerogative to grant exclusive rights to produce a particular good or service.
5. In Darcy vs. Allein, Chief Justice Popham ruled that Darcy’s grant was forbidden on several grounds, all of which violated the common law. Crown could not grant a patent for the private benefit of a single individual who had shown no ability to improve the “mechanical trade of making cards,” because by doing so it barred those who did. In other words, the court recognized that the nation could not grant an exclusive franchise to an individual unless that individual had demonstrated some superior “mastery” of a particular trade.
6. The term of the patent was not to exceed fourteen years, a figure that makes sense only in terms of the artisans for whom Coke was so solicitous. Since the traditional seventeenth-century apprenticeship lasted seven years, a term of fourteen years would allow at least two cycles of apprentices to have been trained in the new industry, and therefore a generation of artisans to demonstrate their mastery of the new art.
7. The first, the so-called civil law tradition, is a direct successor to the jurisprudence of the Roman Empire, and it dominates most of the legal systems of continental Europe; the second is the institution known as the common law, used in Britain and its former colonies.
8. As Coke put it, under the common law, every man’s house is his castle, not because it is defended by moats or walls, but because while the rain can enter, the king may not; under the civil law, the king is bound by nothing at all.
9. Recognition of a property right in ideas was the critical ingredient in democratizing the act of invention. However imperfectly, Coke’s patent system, combined with Locke’s labor theory of value, offered a protected space for inventive activity. The protected space permitted, in turn, the free flow of newly discovered knowledge: the essence of Francis Bacon’s program. Once a generation of artisans discovered they could prosper from owning, even temporarily, the fruits of their mental labor, they began investing that labor where they saw the largest potential return. Most failed, of course, but that didn’t stop a trickle of inventors from becoming a flood
10. An adult human is able to convert roughly 18 percent of the calories he consumes into work, while a big hayburner like a horse or ox is lucky to hit 10 percent—one of the reasons for the popularity of slavery throughout history.
11. One can make a water mill more powerful, but one cannot, in any measurable way, reduce its operating expenses. The importance of this can scarcely be underestimated as a spur to the inventive explosion of the eighteenth century. So long as wind, water, and muscle drove a civilization’s machines, that civilization was under little pressure to innovate. Once those machines were driven by the product of a hundred million years of another sort of pressure, innovation was inevitable.
12. It is almost irresistibly tempting to see Watt’s life as the embodiment of the entire Industrial Revolution. An improbable number of events in his life exemplify the great themes of British technological ascendancy. One, of course, was his early experience with the reactionary nature of a guild economy, whose raison d’être was the medieval belief that the acquisition of knowledge was a zero-sum game; put another way, the belief that expertise lost value whenever it was shared. Another, as we shall see, was his future as the world’s most prominent and articulate defender of the innovator’s property rights. But the most seductive of all was Watt’s simultaneous residence in the worlds of pure and applied science—of physics and engineering. The word “residence” is not used figuratively: The workshop that the university offered its new Mathematical Instrument Maker was in the university’s courtyard, on Glasgow’s High Street, a bare stone’s throw from the Department of Natural Philosophy.
13. Like an ever-growing percentage of his countrymen in the newly United Kingdom, Watt had acquired the tools necessary for scientific invention—the hands of a master craftsman, and a brain schooled in mathematical reasoning—without the independent income that could put those tools to work exclusively for the betterment of mankind.
14. Watt needed capital. Investment capital, however, wasn’t easy to find in 1765 Britain; and it was a lot harder than it had been fifty years earlier. The reason was one of the greatest financial bubbles in history, the collapse of the South Seas Company.
15. Though the most famous inventors are associated in the popular imagination with a single invention—Watt and the separate condenser, Stephenson and Rocket—Watt was just as proud of the portable copying machine he invented in 1780 as he was of his steam engine; Stephenson was, in some circles, just as famous for the safety lamp he invented to prevent explosions in coal mines as for his locomotive.
16. Inventors are significantly more thing-oriented than people-oriented, more detail-oriented than holistic. They are also likely to come from poorer families than non-inventors in the same professions. No surprise there; the eighteenth-century Swiss mathematician Daniel Bernoulli,11 who coined the term “human capital,” explained why innovation has always been a more attractive occupation to have-nots than to haves: not only do small successes seem larger, but they have considerably less to lose.
17. If the most important invention of the Industrial Revolution was invention itself, the automation of precision has to be one of the top three.
18. Micrometers, devices for measuring very small increments, were then only about thirty years old; James Watt himself had produced what was probably the world’s first in 1776, a horizontal scale marked with fine gradations and topped with two jaws, one fixed and the other moved horizontally by turning a screw.
19. The availability of patent protection was, predictably, motivating inventors to make more inventions; it was also motivating them to frustrate competing inventions from anyone else.
20. Nearly fifty years later, the first description of the spinning jenny (“jenny” is a dialect term for “engine” in Lancashire) appeared in the September 1807 issue of The Athenaeum, in which readers learned that the first one was made “almost wholly with a pocket knife.
21. Prior to the introduction of the jenny, Britain’s spinning was performed largely by what we would call independent contractors: the original cottage industrialists, taking raw materials from manufacturers who “put out” for contract the production of finished fabric.
22. One of the more obdurate rules of economics, however, is that, given their capital demands, factories are preferable to more flexibly “outsourced” labor only if they are more productive.
23. A great artisan can make a family prosperous; a great inventor can enrich an entire nation.
24. Smith argued that two conditions were necessary for labor to produce the maximum amount of wealth: perfect competition among sellers—everyone pursuing his or her selfish interest, the famous “invisible hand”—and the complete freedom of buyers to substitute one commodity for another.
25. A family living alone grows its own wheat and bakes its own bread; it takes a village to support a baker, and a town to support a flour mill. Some critical mass of people was needed to provide enough customers to make it worthwhile to invest in ovens, or looms, or forges, and until population levels reached that critical level, overall growth was severely limited.
26. Because knowledge is the sort of property that can be sold to multiple consumers without lowering the value to any of them—Romer termed it nonrivalrous.
27. The remarkable growth of the Netherlands during the 1600s essentially stopped a century later, and the only persuasive reason is size, or rather scale. A small country can shelter the world’s largest banks, shipbuilders, and even textile manufacturers, but since it can protect inventors only from their own countrymen, growth that depends on the creation of new knowledge is fundamentally unsustainable, like a nuclear chain reaction with insufficient critical mass.
28. that heat and motion are essentially the same thing. This was critical, and surprisingly slow in coming.
29. Fitch’s steamboat was not, as many histories have it, the world’s first. In 1772, two ex–artillery officers in the French army, the Comte d’Auxiron and Charles Monnin de Follenai, received a fifteen-year exclusive license to run a steamboat along the Seine. Unfortunately, their first attempt, a marriage of a Newcomen engine to a Seine bâteau, was less than successful: the engine was so heavy it sank the boat. Slightly more successfully, in 1785, the Marquis de Jouffroy d’Abbans took a 140-foot boat mounting a Newcomen-style engine out on the Saône from Lyon. He did make it all the way back to the dock, where cheering crowds met it—just in time, before the engine’s vibrations destroyed the boat.
30. Evans was a visionary and a pioneer. But despite his prediction that “the time will come, when people will travel in stages moved by steam engines from one city to another almost as fast as birds can fly,” his greatest contribution to the history of steam locomotion was almost incidental: his decision to share the design of his boiler and high-pressure steam engine with his compatriots in Britain.
31. Fusible plug is a small lead cylinder inserted into a predrilled hole in the wall of the engine’s boiler—a hole that, in a properly operating engine, would always be underwater. If, however, the water level in the boiler were to fall low enough to become dangerous, the heat would melt the lead plug,Trevithick’s engine, the first driven by high-pressure steam, earned him a considerable claim on the title “father of railways,” but the birth of steam locomotion was still a decade or so in the future. More important, though less romantic, was another of Trevithick’s innovations, one that was nearly as large an improvement over the first high-pressure design as that had been over the Boulton & Watt separate condensing

## Thoughts about “The Box”

Recently I read the book The Box, which was recommended by Bill Gates in hiswebsite. Bill Gates stated that you “won’t look at a cargo ship in quite the same way again” after reading it. I couldn’t agree more. In the 1990s, Mr Gates was always plotted as an evil dictator of a software empire and as a tyrant who cracked down his enemies, like the Netscape, ruthlessly. I was also somehow influenced by those plots for a time. However, after getting more familiar with his experience, especially after reading some of his books and articles, I do think that those disesteems are unfair in many ways. Mr Gates is undoubtedly one of the most visionary and benevolent person in our planet.

I have read his book the road ahead before, which was an extraordinary book. In that book, Mr Gates pointed out a bright future of technology society. Many of his imaginations, such as portable PCs, wireless Internet, smart TVs, have already become reality, despite that Microsoft’s role in the process, sadly, is not as significant as it should be.

Rather than predicting the future, The box is talking about history, if that is long enough to be qualified for. Both books, however, give us tastes of how technology influenced an industry and people’s life. Here are some of my thoughts about this book on “boxes”.

# Influence of Containerization

The paradigm of business is heavily influenced by transport costs. When transport costs are high, manufacturers’ main concern is to locate near their customers, even if this requires undesirably small plants or high operating costs. As transportation costs decline relative to other costs, manufacturers can relocate first domestically, and then internationally, to reduce other costs.

The immediate result of containerization is a sharp decline of international transport costs, which results in an unprecedented process of globalization.

Globalization is not a new phenomenon. The world economy became highly integrated in the nineteenth century, which caused by a variety of reasons. First, the Napoleonic wars united Europe, at least temporarily, and reduced tariffs and other trade barriers for many years. Second, due to the industrial revolution, in particular the steamship invented by Robert Fulton, the ocean freight rates fell 70 percents between 1840 and 1910. Third, new technologies also significantly reduced the time required for worldwide information exchange. For example, Telegraph, the nineteenth-center counterpart of the Internet, gave people in one location current information about prices in another. Traders found it easy to increase imports whenever domestic prices rose or domestic wages got out of hand.

The globalization caused by containership is quite different than its predecessor. While the globalization in the nineteenth century was mostly the globalization of final products, the globalization in the late twentieth century is the globalization of the production process itself. Because of this globalization process, a new type of industrial paradigm, so-called just-in-time manufacturing, becomes possible.

Asia, in particular East Asia, benefits the most from the just-in-time manufacturing, which partly contributes to the prosperity in the region. Now it is quite typical for American businesses to succeed without get their hand dirty at all by “low-level” hardware business. What they need to do is to design and innovate, and then send the specification to Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) in East Asia. For example, when an American consumer purchases an iphone on the Apple’s official website, the iphone will be shipped from factories in China directly rather from some warehouse in the United States. It would not be possible if the shipping cost is high.

Why Asia? The most important reason is the abundance of cheap and skilled labors in this region. Technology companies in Silicon Valley are more inclined to outsource their labor-intensive departments, like hard-ware manufacturing departments, to China and Malaysia, than set up a factory in Rocky mountain states. The human labor in U.S. is just too expensive, plus that the transport cost between Rocky mountains and Silicon Valley is also higher than that between Shanghai and Silicon Valley.

Containerization has made geographical disadvantage a more serious problem. For those regions with geographical disadvantages, like inland cities, local business may survive in case that international transport cost is high because people in the coastal area don’t have much option. However, the life of those inland businesses becomes much hard as the container age comes. They can be easily replaced by competitors overseas. For developing countries, this situation is more serious because coastal cities will absorb all the foreign investment and markets.

If you look at the Guangdong and the Jiangxi provinces in a map of China, you will realize that the two provinces are adjacent to each other, despite that Guangdong is coastal while Jiangxi is completely landlocked. However, the GDP per capita of Guangdong is almost twice that of Jiangxi. Shipping cost is the key reason for the difference. As reported by the World Bank in 2002, transporting a container from a central city to a port cost three times as much as shipping it from the port to America. As a result, Guandong quickly joined the globalization process and became an essential part of the global supply chain. At the same time, Jiangxi couldn’t enjoy such benefits. I am afraid that this gap will still increase in the near future. The only way to reduce is gap is to increase the investment of land-based and inland waters-based logistic system, which hopefully will bring down the inland transport cost. Although some improvements have been made in the past years, there is still a long way to go. Only when shipping cost in inland regions is comparable than that of coastal regions, different regions in China can develop in a balanced way.

# Influence of Deregulations

In the history of containerization, U.S. government played an interesting role.

According to U.S. laws, the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) regulated the rates and services of both trains and interstates trucks. The regulation of ICC made the market quite fragmented. To make it worse, laws also prohibited corporations to be involved in both land-based and sea-based transportations. The initial goals of these regulations was to prevent monopoly and ensure a fair price for consumers. However, the lawmakers wouldn’t image their goodwills turned out to be a huge obstacle for advancement.

When Malcom Mclean, the father of containership, decided to explore the idea of containerization. U.S. regulations would not allow a trucking company to own a ship line. As a result, 1955, McLean sold his trucking company for \$25 million and purchased the Pan-Atlantic Steamship Company and the Gulf Florida Terminal Company from Waterman Steamship Corporation.

The basic concept of the container was that cargo could move seamlessly among trains, trucks and ships. However this goal was not achieved 20 years after McLean invented the first container. The main reason is the government regulations. Although the regulations successfully prevent monopolies, it also made the cooperation among shipping, railway and trucking companies very hard because they cannot develop a long-term contract and trust between each other.

Deregulation, which dates back to bankruptcy of the Penn Central railway, changed everything. In two separate laws passed in 1980, Congress freed interstate truckers to carry almost anything almost anywhere at whatever rates they could negotiate. The ICC lost its role approving rail rates, except for a few commodities. As a result, truck and railcars that had often been forced to return empty were able to be filled in in the return trip. Besides, railroads and their customers could negotiate long-term contracts setting rates. After deregulation, the biggest customers can enjoy larger discount. 41,021 contracts were signed in fives years after the deregulation and by 1988 U.S. shippers saved nearly one-sixth of their total land freight bill.

The ability to sign long-term contracts gave railroads incentive to adapt containership. On average, it costs four cents to ship one ton of containerized freight one mil by rail in 1982 and that cost dropped 40 percent over the next six years, adjusted for inflation.

This is an interesting case in which the goodwills of governments turned out to be harmful. The right way for a government to encourage competition is not to legislate laws, but to keep itself away from the market in most of the time. The key issue of governments is that they are usually too slow to adjust themselves to the market due to bureaucracy, so the best way is to let the market speaks itself. I don’t mean that the government is completely useless, but the role of should be kept minimal. In other words, we should apply the Occam’s Razor to governmental regulations—“Entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily.”

—-

Jing Conan Wang

## Vim script to add user-defined words to spell file automatically

```" A function to search for words after {marker_text} and add them to local
" spell file
function! AutoSpellGoodWords(marker_text)
call cursor(1, 1)
" let l:marker_text = '"%%  LocalWords:'
let l:marker_text = a:marker_text

let l:lines = []
let l:goodwords_start = search(l:marker_text, 'cW')
let l:line = getline(l:goodwords_start)
let l:header = strpart(l:line, 0, strlen(l:marker_text))
if l:header == l:marker_text
call insert(l:lines, l:line)
endif

while l:goodwords_start > 0
let l:goodwords_start = search(l:marker_text, 'W')
if l:goodwords_start == 0
break
end
let l:line = getline(l:goodwords_start)
let l:header = strpart(l:line, 0, strlen(l:marker_text))
if l:header == l:marker_text
call insert(l:lines, l:line)
endif
endwhile

let l:words = []
for l:line in l:lines
let l:line = strpart(l:line, strlen(l:marker_text) + 1)
call extend(l:words, split(l:line))
endfor
for l:word in l:words
silent execute ':spellgood! ' . l:word
endfor
endfunction

autocmd FileType tex call AutoSpellGoodWords('%%  LocalWords:')```

## Tutorial to migrate from Bitbucket to Github

Install mercurial and hg-git

sudo apt-get install mercurial

sudo apt-get install mercurial-git

Note: The version of mercurial should be >= 2.8.

If the default version of mercurial in apt-get is < 2.8. You can install using pip

sudo pip install mercurial –upgrade

# Clone your bitbucket repo

hg clone https://hbhzwj@bitbucket.org/hbhzwj/sadit hg-repo

# Convert hg repo to git repo

Hg-Git can also be used to convert a Mercurial repository to Git. You can use a local repository or a remote repository accessed via SSH, HTTP or HTTPS. Use the following commands to convert the repository

\$ mkdir git-repo; cd git-repo; git init; cd ..
\$ cd  hg-repo
\$ hg bookmarks hg
\$ hg push ../git-repo

The hg bookmark is necessary to prevent problems as otherwise hg-git pushes to the currently checked out branch confusing Git. This will create a branch named hg in the Git repository. To get the changes in master use the following command (only necessary in the first run, later just use git merge or rebase).

\$ cd git-repo
\$ git checkout -b master hg

# Push the Git repo to Github Server

cd git-repo;

git remote add origin <github-url>;

git push -u origin master;

cd ..;

I also write a script to do this automatically.

# 三个时代

## 赌场时代(1948-1988)

80年代疯狂的杠杆收购和敌意兼并是这个时代最鲜明的注脚。数以千家的公司被兼并和收购， 被收购的公司往往担上沉重的负债， 而投资银行则可以拿到丰厚的酬劳。

2013-12-01